2021 NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Grizzlies odds, picks, play-in tournament predictions from model on 99-66 roll

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The Memphis Grizzlies welcome the San Antonio Spurs to FedEx Forum for a high-profile showdown on Wednesday night. The two teams will engage in a play-in battle, with the winner staying alive in pursuit of a playoff berth. San Antonio will aim to pull off the small upset, entering at 33-39 this season, and Memphis is 38-34 in 2020-21. Trey Lyles (ankle) is listed as questionable for San Antonio. Grayson Allen (abdominal) is listed as questionable for Memphis.

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in Memphis. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Grizzlies as four-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 222.5 in the latest Spurs vs. Grizzlies odds. Before you make any Grizzlies vs. Spurs picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the 2020-21 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 99-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Spurs vs. Grizzlies. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Grizzlies vs. Spurs:

  • Spurs vs. Grizzlies spread: Grizzlies -4
  • Spurs vs. Grizzlies over-under: 222.5 points
  • Spurs vs. Grizzlies money line: Grizzlies -185, Spurs +165
  • SA: The Spurs are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MEM: The Grizzlies are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games

Featured Game | Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs

Why the Spurs can cover

The Spurs are a well-coached team with experience in big spots. DeMar DeRozan leads the team offensively in averaging 21.6 points and 6.9 assists per game, but the Spurs are also quite balanced in their approach. San Antonio is elite at taking care of the ball, committing only 11.4 turnovers per game (No. 2 in the NBA), and that helps to boost efficiency. The Spurs are also above-average in both free throw creation (22.0 attempts per game) and accuracy (79.2 percent). 

On the defensive side, San Antonio is facing a Memphis team that is just 22nd in the NBA in shooting efficiency and 25th in the NBA in free throw creation rate. In contrast, the Spurs are a top-10 group at preventing free throw attempts, yielding just 20.7 attempts per game, and San Antonio does a good job at protecting the rim in generating 5.1 blocked shots per contest.

Why the Grizzlies can cover

Memphis excels in a number of areas, potentially paving the way to overall success. The Grizzlies are a top-five team in both offensive rebound rate (28.5 percent) and assists (26.9 per game) on the offensive end, both of which are good indicators to offensive efficiency. Memphis is also strong in ball security, committing a turnover on only 13.1 percent of offensive possessions in 2020-21. 

On the defensive side, the Grizzlies are very potent overall, ranking No. 7 in the NBA in allowing only 110.5 points per 100 possessions for the season. Memphis is a top-eight team in creating turnovers, forcing a giveaway on 14.6 percent of possessions, and the Grizzlies lead the entire NBA in steals at 9.1 per game. The Grizzlies are also above the NBA average in field goal percentage allowed (46.2 percent), contesting shots effectively, and they grab 73.6 percent of available rebounds on the defensive glass.

How to make Grizzlies vs. Spurs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 221 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Spurs vs. Grizzlies? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a roll on NBA picks.

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