Happy Wednesday! We’re halfway through the week, with a big weekend coming our way. The PGA Championship starts tomorrow morning, and NBA play-in games continue tonight before the playoffs start for real over the weekend. Toss in the NHL playoffs and the conclusion of European soccer season, and you’ve got a lot on your plate.
Don’t worry, I think you can handle it. Just try to make some time for the Formula 1 race in Monaco on Sunday morning because there’s nothing quite like watching cars try to drive really fast through narrow city streets. Plus, the people-watching in Monaco is crazy.
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But that’s not all for a few more days. First, let’s get through tonight. Like last night, I have a pick for both NBA play-in games, as well as an MLB play. I also have some PGA Championship Top 20 props for you. Before we get to all of it, let’s catch up on today’s news.
All right, let’s make tonight a winning one.
All times Eastern, and all odds via William Hill Sportsbook
? The Hot Ticket
Warriors at Lakers, 10 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Stephen Curry Over 48.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (+100): Is it too much to ask Stephen Curry to meet the moment? I mean, he’s done it plenty of times before, right?
A matchup of the defending champion Lakers and Stephen Curry’s Warriors is more than the NBA could have ever fantasized about for a play-in game, but it’s happening. While I’m not entirely sure how it’ll go — I lean the Lakers — no matter what happens, I feel like Steph will have to cook to keep the Warriors in it. Now, in his prior performances against the Lakers this season, these numbers feel out of reach. Steph has averaged 23 points, 2.7 rebounds and 5.3 assists in those games, but he’s only played 90 minutes in those games.
If we look at Steph down the stretch, as the Warriors were jockeying for a spot, he took on a more prominent role. In Curry’s last 16 games, he’s averaged 35 minutes per game while scoring 35.9 points with 5.3 rebounds and 5.2 assists. A night like that pushes us past our threshold, and that’s the kind of night I’m counting on.
Key Trend: Curry has exceeded 48.5 PAR in nine of his last 16 games.
Here’s what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine’s projection model generated selections for Wednesday’s play-in matchup between the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers, and it has a pretty strong lean on one side of the total.
? The Picks? NBA
Spurs at Grizzlies, 7:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Grizzlies -4 (-110) — Remember how the Hornets looked last night? I won’t be shocked if we see a similar performance from San Antonio in Memphis. The Spurs are limping into the play-in, having lost four straight and 10 of their last 12. You see that and wonder just how enthusiastic the Spurs will be about playing for the chance to get eliminated in the first round.
I have more faith in the motivation for the Grizzlies, as they look to make the playoffs for the first time since the 2016-17 season. Plus, the Grizzlies had their way with the Spurs a bit this season. San Antonio won the first meeting — which was the season opener for both — but later in the year, when they played twice in San Antonio, the Grizzlies won both games by a combined score of 262-214.
Key Trend: San Antonio is 2-5-1 in its last eight games as an underdog.
Mets at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Mets (+165) — If it ain’t broke, why fix it? Betting NL East dogs in division games has been profitable for us so far this season, and we have yet another opportunity to take advantage of it again tonight. Honestly, how are the Braves this big of a favorite against the Mets? Atlanta is 19-23 on the season and has the worst run differential in the division. It’s lost three straight and hasn’t beaten the Mets yet.
Then there’s the pitching matchup. Nobody will confuse New York’s David Peterson with a Cy Young candidate, but he’s been better this season than Atlanta starter Charlie Morton. Peterson misses more bats, and, while the Mets offense is nothing special, the Braves haven’t been great against lefties themselves. And if things get to the bullpens? Everything there points New York’s direction too.
Key Trend: The Braves are 1-4 in their last five as a favorite.
? SportsLine Pick of the Day: The SportsLine Projection Model is off to a fast start in 2021, going 52-36 on all top-rated MLB picks. See its four-leg parlay that would pay more than 13-1 on Wednesday.
? The DFS RundownTop Three Starters
- Max Scherzer, Nationals
- Corbin Burnes, Brewers
- Shohei Ohtani, Angels
Value StarterTop Three Hitters
- Max Muncy, Dodgers
- Mookie Betts, Dodgers
- Juan Soto, Nationals
- Enrique Hernandez, Red Sox
⛳ PGA Championship Top 20s
We’re betting on each of these golfers to finish in the top 20 this weekend.
- Daniel Berger (+130)
- Webb Simpson (+163)
- Abraham Ancer (+188)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+230)
- Russell Henley (+450)
- Stewart Cink (+550)
- Kevin Streelman (+600)
- Harold Varner (+700)
- Ian Poulter (+700)
- Aaron Rai (+1400)